Revenue modeling based on cohorts
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In financial modeling, the calculation of turnover is done by multiplying the total number of clients per month by the average check per month and the average number of transactions per client per month. This can be represented in formula form as follows:
Btotal × AOV × T
Moreover, when modeling, we usually indicate the average bill that will be for the current month. The value itself can be taken from unit economics, or in some other way. If you change the price of your business, it is important to understand that most likely it will apply only to new customers and not to old ones.
For example, if you have a subscription business, then those customers who previously subscribed will pay the old price, and new ones will pay the new price, and then the Revenue calculation should take this into account. In this case, each cohort of clients must have its own average bill value in the model and take this value into account when calculating the Revenue value. This has not yet been implemented in ueCalc, but I started thinking about implementing this approach.
For business models with a long customer lifespan and strong price changes, this can be critical and greatly affect the final Revenue value in plan-actual analysis.
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